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50k guaranteed, Kings Casino Rozvadov, Czech Republic

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Structure comparison of Vegas summer tournaments

Some may know that I am a big fan of Snyders' Patience Factor as it is a very good tool to compare the quality of tournament structures. But I am aware that this tool only gives "correct" results for the early stages of a tournament. In general this is a minor problem as the later stages reflect the earlier stages anyway.

But you have to be more careful with your results in deepstacks tournaments and/or those that differ significantly in how flat or steep the blindlevels are. Which is definately the case in the summer Vegas events.

So for my upcoming tournaments in Vegas I added two columns to Snyders' PF-Calculator to get the numbers for Harrington's M=20 and M=10. While Snyder uses the blind-off time for his calculations I now use the starting stack for my considerations. The basic idea is to say "if I can maintain my startingstack how long will I be in the comfortzone and when will I reach push-and-fold mode". This defines the critical area of the tournament and usually the one were bust outs start to come faster (before slowing down again).

In addition I then checked the jumps needed to maintain M=20. Usually you should expect to increase your stack (at least that is the goal of a tournament). So with lower jumps from level to level this goal can be achieved much easier then with big jumps. Again you can find a critical area with a lot of busts combined with those big jumps as the majority can't keep up with the pace of the blinds. For my calculations I only look at the values after M=20 has reached the startingstack as it is usual and neglectible that there are up to 100% jumps in the very early stages.

While this method is not so intuitive like calculating the PF it may help to define the overall quality. So let's have a look at the Vegas events in June:

I looked always at the lowest buy-In events which is the $340 for Venetian and Caesars, $235 for the Golden Nugget.

Venetian DSE III (12,000 startchips & 40 min. levels)
PF=23.23
M=20 reached at level 4
M=10 reached at level 6

Blind-Off Time (Snyder) = 289.20 min.
Critical time frame = 160 – 240 min.
Critical jumpfactor = 75% to level 4 & 63.64% to level 6 (160 min. & 240 min.)

Remark: The blind jumps at the DSE are surprisingly wild. Between 33-50% in the early stages and then 75% and 63% during the critical time frame. From there they almost never go above 39% and even go as low as 11%.


Caesars Mega-Stacks (15,000 startchips & 50 min. levels)
PF=28.22
M=20 reached at level 3
M=10 reached at level 5

Blind-Off Time (Snyder) = 318.75 min.
Critical time frame = 150 – 250 min.
Critical jumpfactor = 55.56% to level 8 (420 min.)

Remark: The Mega-Stacks never jump more then 55% (even with the antes kicking in) and stay quite constant. Jumps in later stages go as low as 29%


Golden Nugget Grand Series (12,000 startchips & 40 min. levels)
PF=27.17
M=20 reached at level 5
M=10 reached at level 7

Blind-Off Time (Snyder) = 312.73 min.
Critical time frame = 200 – 280 min.
Critical jumpfactor = 55.56% to level 6 & to level 8 (240 min. & 320 min.)

Remark: Although not counting this for the evaluation it should be noted that there is a 133% jump to level 4 (just before the critical time is reached)! Later stages show everything from 15% to 71% in a wild mix.


Conclusion
Taking all into account it looks like the Venetian is slightly ahead in terms of structure this year. With critical time frame and critical jumpfactor almost identical you have to survice just one steep cliff (lasting 1h 20min). From there it's an much easier sail then.

For Caesars you have to survive another critical time after 240 min and even from there have to deal with higher jumps then the Venetian in general.

The Nugget has the weirdest structure of all. With the critical time frame and the critical jumpfactor overlapping there is a extended critical period from 200 min. till 320 min (2h!). The big jump before that isn't helpful either.

Any feedback on this approach is welcome. I also posted this on 2+2 in the "structure comparison" thread (page 2) if you prefer to respond there.


Addition (on May 25th, 00:47am):
Thanks to "dcarp" for making me aware of an important fact by sending me a private note on 2+2.

I talked about the difference in the jumps from level to level which are 11-39% (Venetian) and 29-55% (Caesars) as shown above. Please don't forget that this accumulates over a longer time. So with the Venetian having overall slower jumps Caesars starts to run away much faster the longer the tournament lasts.

E.g. during level 13 a M=20 is 162k @ Venetian but a whooping 420k @ Caesars. After re-reading my posting I think "...and even from there have to deal with higher jumps then the Venetian in general" doesn't emphasize this fact enough.

But then, I still think that the early stages are very important. If you have to get lucky early to reach the later stages I never call a tournament deepstack. To close out the luck factor you need a sufficient amount of time to accumulate chips. What I tried was to extent the reach of the PF (which doesn't go very deep into a tournament) to a somewhat thorough consideration.

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Friday, May 22, 2009

Sometimes you just can't win

Went to the Masters Warmup tournament at the Oceanscard Casino near Passau. Not too bad of a structure with 10k chips and 30 min. levels. Unfortunately they still have the awful jump from 100/200 to 200/400(25) ... hope they fix this some day to make it a real good tournament. 38 players created a prizepool of €3,800 awarding six paid spots with about 1.2k for the winner.

This was a strange tournament for me. I got a lot of playable cards but beside AK two times there were no premium hands during the first levels. My highest pair was a pair of 8's. I connected to the flop sometimes but never good enough to face a strong competition. So my stack went back and forth between 8k and 13k for a long time. Already in the awful 200/400(25) level I managed to get a break. Raised it to 1,000 with KK and got an all-in from a guy with 12k. Of course he could have had aces but based on his previous plays I estimated that he was trying to protect a vulnerable hand. So I called and he showed AKo. No further help for him and I was up to 24k.

From there I took down some nice pots and peeked at 32k. In the following two levels I was rather card dead so my stack went down to 24k. Still nothing to panic about. Average at this time was 20k. Then during the 800/1,600(200) level I picked up QQ and was faced with a 9k all-in from a short-stack. Of course I called and was delighted to see his TT ... until another Ten hit on the river. Down to 16k. Now it was time to panic. No, not really ;-) But this was a real cooler. Still managed to bring my stack back to 24k again.

Finally I received AA in first position. Raised it to 4k and got a re-raise all-in from the button who had about the same amount of chips then me (24k). Of course I called and he showed QQ. Nice! Until a Queen appeared on the flop. Out in 18th position instead of being among the chipleaders with 52k. What the hell do people think I may have when I raise from UTG? Sure he couldn't re-raise with a 24k stack but he also should have put into account that I may have a real strong hand. To be honest, I loved his call ;-) only didn't like the result.

As said in the title "sometimes you just can't win". Today I played a good game with no major mistakes. There was nothing I could have made different to alter the outcome. Still it was a good training for Vegas and I am more and more comfortable with the way I play. My current style allows for a lot of play with less risk even when I don't get premium cards. Can you believe that none of my pairs improved to a set on that day? In addition this style allows to trap people easily. Unfortunately traps can fire back some times.

Most probably this was my last live game before Vegas ... just 16 more days. Starting to get excited. Don't forget that there are still shares available on Chip Me Up. Altered my plans a little. Now the final schedule includes tournaments at Caesars, Venetian and Golden Nugget.

Although I love the Caesars poker room I don't play the Mega-Stacks exclusively this year for some reasons: First is the fact that I don't like that Harrahs takes away 10k from the prizepool for a main-event seat. I would prefer that this money is distributed between those ITM. Second is that the Venetian really has improved their structure in the middle stages. It's time to test them again. In addition I found it somewhat exhausting to go to the same place over and over every day during last years trip. A change of venue is always refreshing. I also added the Golden Nugget as they offer a very good structure in relation to the buy-in.

Playing at the Golden Nugget is somewhat like coming back home for me. The Golden Nugget was the place were I played my first ever hand of poker in 2004. Being a cardcounter at that time I never expected that the game of Poker could influence my live so much. Now I only need a major cash in Las Vegas. I had some nice final tables and cashes in other places but in Vegas I still miss a big hit. Maybe this year! ;-)

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Friday, May 15, 2009

Some random stuff

Not much has happend in the last weeks so this is just a little wrap up and some funny stuff to read.

Of course I now get more and more excited about my upcoming Vegas trip. All is set and booked. The plans for my tournaments are made and staking offers are set up on CmU ;-))

In addition I am now officially approved to get media credentials for the WSOP during my stay. Not sure what kind of stories I will/can deliver but I try to do my best to find some good stuff. This will be especially interesting for my readers who can read german as I will write some stuff for Pokerfirma.de.

Last night I really owned our homegame. Took out the first guy after three hands and then all of the others except of two. Of course I won that tournament ;-) Sure it's helpful to get good hands and in addition hit on the flop heavily. In the second tournament my cards weren't that good anymore but still good enough to make second here. Nice addition to my Vegas bankroll ... thanks guys!

You may remember that I talked about Twitter and twittering poker pros not long ago. Twitter still rocks and more and more join Twitterverse. One of the newest additions is @DocPoker (Michael Keiner) who hasn't twittered yet but will do during the WSOP.

Like a funny Twitter story? O.K here it is! This one has happend just a few minutes ago between @allenkessler (Allen Kessler) who is playing in a tournament and @savagepoker (Matt Savage) who is the tournament director in that event:


@allenkessler on Thu 14 May 23:53
What was @savagepoker thinking when he scheduled both 8 or better tourneys on the same day a few hours apart?

@savagepoker on Fri 15 May 00:07
@allenkessler I was hoping you bust out so you can play them both!

shortly after:

@allenkessler on Fri 15 May 00:24
@savagepoker why are tourneys set up to give more play in nolimit than limit events...

@savagepoker on Fri 15 May 00:30
@allenkessler why don't you walk 50 feet over here and ask me :-)

@allenkessler on Fri 15 May 00:33
@savagepoker afraid to miss a hand


...this is more entertaining then any live reporting can be! Unfortunately the twitter rules at the WSOP are more strict but you can still expect many interesting and funny stories in the Twitterverse during the WSOP.

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