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Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Betting on the WSOP

Well, as a sports bettor I couldn't resist to bet a little on the future WSOP winner.

What I did is that I made small bets on 60 pros to win the WSOP.
Before the WSOP startet this was about 1% of the field or a 100-1 shot.
As my best bet paid about 1500-1 which makes it 25-1 (= 1500-60) for the whole bunch of wagers this wasn't really +EV if you make every player equal. But I think the pros (as a group) have an advantage over the amateurs. And even with a lot of single eliminations I should go well with the group as a whole. And I think this group should be at least a 4-1 favorite over the rest of the field.

You may imagine that I was scared as hell seeing to lose so many pros on the first three first days.
But cream is always raising to the top and the rest of the "pro bunch" made a good stand in day two and three.

Right now at the end of day three I still have 6 pros running for me compared to the whole field of around 185. My pros are now around 3% of the field (compared to 1% in the beginning). So I now need 33-1 odds to make it +EV. My best "horses" are 12-1 (750-60). If I still believe that the pros are a 4 times fav over the amateurs I now really have +EV.
Much better: Some of my best wagers are on the top of the leaderboard. It is still 4 more days to go and things can change fast - but at this time I feel good with my wagers:


Greg Raymer 718-1
Phil Ivey 290-1
Howard Lederer 318-1
Kim Hua 650-1
John Juanda 379-1
Lee Watkinson 750-1

Update on July 14:
Ivey and Ramyer are still in (Top 5) with 27 players left. Those two represent now more than 7% of the enire field. The only thing I regret now is that I forgot to add Matusow to my list. This might become a big mistake...


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