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Saturday, November 15, 2008

Streaks exist!

There is a lot of discussion about streaks and if they exist or not. I had these discussions im my Black Jack times and I still have them with poker players.

Of course they exist. It's a natural thing. We all now that that there is a certain probability for some things to happen (or not to happen). And the distribution of these events is not linear. Therefore it's no wonder that there are clumps of similar events that always seem to proof probability wrong.

While my event in Graz had a more or less equal distribution of good and bad events, Linz was different. I was extremly lucky two times there. Both times I was down to about 5% to win my hands and managed to escape. Seeing the the Hand were Scott Montgomery busted Craig Marquis at the WSOP final table was a real Dejavu. And in addition I won a good amount of coinflips in important situations.

But after Linz everything seemed to go vice versa. I went to the CCC in Salzburg for the €10+4 Rebuy tournament and went in everytime with the best hand but got hit every single time. This continued with my online play in the last days. Even being 70% ahead isn't enough at this time.

So streaks exist ... unfortunately they can only be seen from the past. There's no way to avoid them. And if we are in them nobody can tell how long they will last. You have to play through them no matter what. You can't change your play because the streak may have just ended and changing your game is just the wrong thing to do at this moment. I can only hope the bad streak was just a short intermission as I have several interesting events coming up till the end of the year.

Next weekend I will be in Seefeld for Casino Austria's "Beat'Em All". It will be a nice weekend as I travel with my girlfriend and we arrive on Friday and stay till Monday ... having a good time together beside playing poker.

A new addition to my schedule is a trip to the DuskTillDawn Pokerroom in Nottingham from Dec. 5th to 8th. Originally I had planned to play an event of the Christmas Poker Championships in Bregenz but then this opportunity came up. The DTD celebrates their first anniversary with a little festival. While the 4-day main-event has a superb structure, the £1,000+60 Buy-In is beyond my bankroll. But they have two side events with £300+30 and £200+20 that still have a very good deep-stack structure. The PF of these events is over 26 so they compare with the Caesars Mega-Stacks I played in Vegas this summer. I was lucky to get a flight with Ryanair for a total of €30. So even adding the trainride to Frankfurt-Hahn this is still bargain!

The weekend after, there is the Pokertour.at final in Vienna. Most probably I will add some smaller events at the local places in Vienna but haven't made my exact plans yet.

There are several interesting tournaments in January and February (mostly beyond). So keep your fingers crossed for me that I make some money in December to keep the pace here.

My next bigger online event will be the FTOPS X, Event #24 on Sunday. Beside that I will go small ball in online tournaments in the next time as I keep a good portion of my bankroll for the upcoming live events.


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